Karen Aston has become one of 15 coaches to guide three different basketball programs to the NCAA women’s tournament. She’s had one trip at Charlotte, six at Texas and now one at UTSA. – File photo by Joe Alexander

By Jerry Briggs
Special for The JB Replay

(Commentary)

The 12-time national champion Connecticut Huskies rate as an almost comical 54.5-point favorite over the UTSA Roadrunners.

Connecticut is 34-0 and UTSA 18-15.

The Huskies have walloped opponents by an average of almost 39 points per game, while the Roadrunners only a few weeks ago had lost six out of nine and languished at 13-15 on the season.

So, why would anyone think the Roadrunners would have a chance in a first-round NCAA tournament women’s basketball game set for Saturday at 2 p.m. in Storrs, Conn.?

Fact is, most people think the Roadrunners have no chance to win, and a lot of folks who like to assess the betting line, if only in a theoretical sense, will go with the Huskies to beat the massive point spread.

Right up front, I have one word of advice. Don’t read any more of this and go out and bet on the game. Please, don’t.

But for the sake of analysis, I wanted to use the line as a data point in detailing some factors to consider if you’re thinking the Huskies will cover it, and a few more if you believe a 54.5-point spread might be bloated.

First, here are a few reasons to believe that Connecticut could win by a massive margin:

* The Huskies play great defense.

They’re big and quick and they hold opponents to 50.4 points on 33.3 percent shooting. They also force 24.5 turnovers. The Roadrunners have had trouble in that area, committing an average of 25 turnovers against four Power 4 opponents.

* UConn is the No. 2 scoring team in the nation, averaging 88 a game. It’s a team also ranked No. 1 in field goal percentage (52.5) and three-point percentage (39.6). UConn has three starters hitting 42.7 percent or better from three. The Huskies’ bench averages 31.1 points.

* Forward Sarah Strong might be the nation’s best player. She’s averaging 18.5 points and 7.6 rebounds. Strong is also shooting .601 from the field, .427 from three and .863 from the free throw line. When UTSA’s Cheyenne Rowe was asked this week if Strong was better shooting from inside or outside, she said, “Whenever she has the ball.”

Next, here are some thoughts on why UTSA could keep it closer than some might think:

* The Roadrunners enter the game at UConn with a certain intangible element as one of the fastest-rising programs in the nation.

In the 2020-21 season, they had plummeted to a 2-18 record. In the past five seasons under Karen Aston, they are 82-77, including 62-35 in the past three years. They’ve won a regular-season conference title in 2025 and now a postseason title in 2026.

* Aston has done perhaps her best work ever this season, in her 18th as a head coach and her fifth at UTSA. The Roadrunners were without five scholarship players this season and still managed to win the tournament.

* The Roadrunners’ top three players have a certain grit and tenacity about them, in that they’ve all overcome significant personal obstacles.

Guard Ereauna Hardaway, notably, suffered a loss of hearing as a grade schooler and battled through it to become a standout athlete at both North Texas and UTSA.

Forward Cheyenne Rowe lacked confidence when she arrived as a James Madison transfer three years ago. Now, she’s the team’s leading scorer. Idara Udo was limited with injuries last summer and sat out eight games at midseason.

All three made the American’s all-tournament team last week.

* Sophomores Mia Hammonds and Damara Allen, two of the best pure athletes on the team, are playing with confidence. Hammonds, at 6-foot-3, is shooting 67 percent from the field in her last three games.

So, there you are.

Now, let’s tip it off and see how the game plays out.